What is a sales forecast and why do we see it as essential?

For us, a sales forecast is the prediction and estimation of sales over a specific period of time. In other words, it’s the most important branch within the flow of information in any business.

Without a solid forecast, any decision — from staffing to stock management — is based on assumptions. We’ve learned that planning without forecasting is essentially putting profitability at risk.

How we implemented sales forecasting in our daily operations

When we began using sales forecasting, our first step was to stop seeing it as just a spreadsheet or a theoretical concept. Instead, we treated it as a core operational tool.

We started by analyzing our historical sales data, seasonality trends, customer behavior, and external factors like weather and local events. From there, we moved toward systems that automate and refine that forecasting process.

Today, we use platforms like the Sales Prediction Module by Controliza, which allows us to anticipate daily or weekly demand with high accuracy. This has completely transformed how we manage staff schedules, place supplier orders, and design promotional offers.

Real benefits we’ve experienced using sales forecasts

Since integrating forecasting into our daily workflow, we’ve seen clear improvements in three key areas:

• Better purchasing and inventory management: By anticipating actual demand, we avoid both overstocking and stockouts.
• Optimized staffing: We align work shifts with projected sales, improving team efficiency and morale.
• More accurate decision-making: We base our actions on data, not gut feelings.

Additionally, forecasting enables us to design targeted promotions for high-demand periods, maximizing revenue.

Mistakes we made before forecasting

One of our most common mistakes was relying only on short-term historical data without considering external variables. For example, if one Monday was slow, we assumed all Mondays would be similar.

We also used to launch campaigns or offers without knowing whether demand would justify the effort. This led to poorly timed promotions that underperformed or caused losses.

Eventually, we understood that a good forecast isn’t about predicting the future — it’s about building it with data.

The types of sales forecasts we use in our business

We’ve adopted a hybrid approach, combining several types of forecasting depending on our needs:

• Quantitative forecasting: Based on historical data and statistical trends.
• Qualitative forecasting: Leveraging team insights, especially useful for new product launches or special events.
• Automated predictive models: Using tools like Digital Twin, powered by artificial intelligence to improve forecast accuracy.

Each method brings unique value, and we’ve learned how to blend them effectively.

How to start using sales forecasts in your business

From our experience, here’s how to get started:

1. Collect historical data: Daily, hourly, and product-specific sales figures.
2. Analyze external factors: Weather, calendar, holidays, and local events.
3. Choose the right tool: If you’re in hospitality, we strongly recommend Controliza Forecast.
4. Compare forecasts with reality: Constantly validate predictions and adjust models.
5. Make forecasting part of decision-making: It shouldn’t live in an isolated spreadsheet — integrate it into operations, marketing, and planning.

Forecasting as part of the company culture

One of the biggest mindset shifts for us was realizing that forecasting shouldn’t be limited to the finance or sales department. It needs to be integrated into the entire business culture.

Today, all of our teams — from kitchen to marketing — are aligned with our sales projections. This gives us a consistent and proactive vision across all areas.

Most importantly, it has helped us reduce waste, increase profitability, and deliver a better customer experience.

Conclusion: Forecasting isn’t optional — it’s essential

For a long time, we viewed forecasting as a luxury — something only big corporations needed. But the truth is, sales forecasting is one of the most powerful tools any business can adopt, regardless of size.

Now that we’ve made it a regular part of our operations, we can’t imagine going back. Forecasting has given us clarity, control, and confidence.

In short, it’s not just about estimating numbers — it’s about making decisions with real visibility into what’s coming.